What is the OBR?
The Office for Budget Responsibility, or OBR, is the UK's independent fiscal watchdog. Set up in 2010, it produces official forecasts for the economy and public finances twice a year. It also judges whether the government is on track to meet its own fiscal rules, and costs every Budget measure.
Before the OBR, the Treasury produced its own forecasts, and critics said they were too rosy. The coalition government created the OBR in 2010, and the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 put it on a legal footing. It is led by a three-member Budget Responsibility Committee and has a small staff of economists. It must be independent of ministers by law.
The OBR publishes an Economic and Fiscal Outlook alongside each Budget and spring statement. This sets out forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment, tax receipts, spending and borrowing over five years. It checks the cost of every tax and spending measure. It will publish its next forecast alongside the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026. It also publishes a separate fiscal risks report each year.
The OBR's verdict on headroom against the fiscal rules has become hugely important. Small changes in its forecasts can force a Chancellor to raise taxes or cut spending. In 2022 the decision to announce major tax cuts without an OBR forecast helped trigger market turmoil. The OBR also publishes long-term reports on risks such as an ageing population. Its forecasts are often criticised.
- Sets taxes in the Budget
- Agrees each department's spending
- Manages government borrowing
- Oversees banks and financial regulation
- Sets fiscal rules
Budget: Under £1bn for the department itself, but it decides how about £1.3 trillion of public money is spent. Staff: About 2,000
What it runs or funds
HM Revenue and Customs, UK Debt Management Office, Office for Budget Responsibility (independent), National Savings and Investments, Royal Mint
Did you know? Officially the PM is First Lord of the Treasury, which is why No 10 has that title on its letterbox.
Britain is split. Now you decide.
In WeDecide you see a running forecast of borrowing, debt and growth that reacts to every choice you make in your Budget.
Play WeDecide freeCommon questions
What does OBR stand for?
Office for Budget Responsibility.
Is the OBR part of the government?
It is a publicly funded body, but it is independent and the Treasury cannot change its forecasts.
When does the OBR publish forecasts?
Twice a year, alongside the Budget and the spring statement.
What is HM Treasury?
The UK's finance ministry. The Treasury is the UK's finance ministry, controlling spending, taxes and borrowing.
Which minister leads the Treasury day to day?
The Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Chancellor of the Exchequer leads the Treasury.